This morning I appeared in the CNN Philippines studio with the award-winning journalist Pinky Webb to talk about this past weekend's incidents at Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal, in which--in a calculated action--an armada of six China Coast Guard, four PLA Navy and 32 maritime militia opposed, harassed and impeded the Philippines' resupply of its outpost aboard the derelict ship, BRP Sierra Madre.

First, Pinky is a total pro and clearly deserving of the honors she's received. Her questions were well informed, incisive and challenging.

My bottom-line assessment can be summarized as follows: 

China's blockade is intended to result in the deterioration and ultimate abandonment of the Philippine outpost aboard the rusting BRP Sierra Madre--unless the Philippines, together with its U.S. ally and other security partners, comes up with its own strategy to break, circumvent or lift the blockade.

Because the Sierra Madre is disintegrating, time and inertia are not on the Philippines' side, but will only result in China gaining control of the shoal and pushing the Philippines from one of its last outposts within its own exclusive economic zone.