China has mastered the employment of “quiet aggression” to assert its economic, diplomatic and military influence over other nations and territories. Rather than waging open conflict, China uses more subtle--often called "gray zone"--tactics in order to gain control of its vast maritime claims without having to pay high costs for its aggression. This enables China to maintain much of its standing as a "responsible" member of the international community while also gaining ever expanding economic and political power. 

Quiet aggression can be seen in everything that China does. Two of most prominent examples are its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its maritime expansion campaigns in the East and South China Seas. This article will focus on its maritime expansionism, while BRI will be explored in a future article.

A key element of China's South China Sea strategy of “quiet aggression” included the building and expansion of artificial islands, ports, military installations and runways. It now uses these as power projection platforms to compel other nations to relinquish control of the surrounding seas to Beijing. Its goal is to create an anti-access/area-denial zone within the first island chain that extends from the Korean Peninsula, through Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, and then across Malaysia and Indonesia. Successfully building A2/AD here will present its neighbors with a fait accompli, leading them to conclude that resistance is futile within this space. 

China's objective is to push its extra-regional competitors (especially the United States) out of its desired sphere of influence, while convincing its neighbors to accept its status as the regional hegemon. Success will mean unrivaled control of one of the world's most strategic waterways.

The sea itself is not only strategically critical because of a wide range of potential regional conflicts, a major trade waterway, and vital to a possible war over Taiwan, but it is also one of the world’s richest sources of fish and a potential major source of untapped oil. Since late 2013, China has steadily reclaimed land and militarized its positions in the South China Sea in an attempt to legitimize its territorial claims. (Kurlantzick & McGowan, 2024). 

As indicated by SeaLight's original name, Project Myoushu, China’s strategy of quiet aggression can be compared to the ancient game of Go, in that rather than directly attacking enemy pieces and removing them from the board, China looks to capture strategic nodes and networks, becoming more powerful and choking out their opponents before direct conflict ever occurs. This also means that China can act proactively, setting the tone for future competition and tilting the playing field to put their adversaries at a disadvantage. 

This makes exerting control over over its maritime approaches extremely important, as not only will then Beijing be able to isolate its geopolitical rivals such as Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines, but it can also threaten to disrupt trade networks, hindering the United States’ and its allies’ economic security. This, in turn, weakens China’s adversaries while increasing Beijing's coercive leverage, all without appearing to move directly against international commerce. 

It also provides opportunities for China to expand its own interests, creating a cycle that, over time, allows China to grow stronger and increase its access to economic, political, and military power without the suffering the same risk and blowback that usually accompany military expansion.  

Through its comprehensive strategy of quiet aggression in the South China Sea, China is gradually choking out its major adversaries and subduing its smaller rivals. The world has begun waking up, but with a long head start and huge momentum, has it been too little, too late?